Where private capital is moving, as filed.
New private capital reported to the SEC, class by class; capital flows between countries; rates, credit, commodities, warning signals and the economic cycles, each read against its own history; and a weekly analysis, each call graded once its data is out.
223 countries and territories whose cross-border flows the map counts
Each source carries its own date, and every figure names where it came from.
Capital flows
Bank lending, Treasury and stock purchases, direct investment and US direct investment between countries, each source over its own latest period, stated rather than blended away. The largest flows are drawn on the map and every flow is counted, so what places took in and what they sent out add up to the same money.
Across the latest quarter of bank lending (Q1 2026), the latest 3 months of Treasury and stock purchases (to July 2026), the latest year of direct investment (2024) and the latest quarter of US direct investment (Q2 2026), the United States took in $475bn more than it sent out, 52% of the net inflow these flows show; Germany sent out the most, $215bn net.
Private capital by class
The new money each asset class reported in its filings, a raise filed several times counted once, and each class read against its own last six months, from Cold to Hot.
No asset class reads Warm or Hot in the four weeks to Oct 15, 2026.
Economic cycles
Where the US economy stands today against the conditions that came before past recessions since 1960: which are in place, which are getting close by a rule written down in advance, and how many times each held with no recession following. Where the business, credit and rates, real estate and commodity cycles stand, and what followed the closest earlier times: counted, never forecast.
Beside the record sits our view: where the cycle stands and the risk of a US recession over the next two years, from Low to High, written with the analysis from the same data. It is marked as our opinion; the record beside it is counted, never forecast.
Warning signals
The yield curve, Treasury funding, jobless claims, banks' lending standards and other signals that have come before downturns, each read against every earlier time its rule held. What followed those earlier times is counted, never forecast.
In the 8 earlier times since the record began in 1976 when the 10-year yield fell below the 2-year's (a month's average), outside a recession and with a known result, a recession began within 24 months in 6 of them (NBER dates). Unemployment was higher 12 months on in 5 of 8. 1 other came during a recession already under way and is not counted. What followed in the past, not a forecast.
Commodities and building costs
Where funds lean in each commodity market, each real price against 20 years, crop supplies and fuel stocks, and what building inputs cost, from producer prices to diesel, copper and lumber.
Construction inputs
8.9% in 12 months
A rise faster than most: the 87th percentile of its 12-month changes in 20 years.
August 2026
Construction inputs cost 8.9% more than a year earlier in August 2026 (BLS producer prices): the 87th percentile of its 12-month changes in 20 years.
Eight industry pages
Real estate and construction, energy, agriculture and food, manufacturing, transport and travel, healthcare, technology, and banking and finance: each page reads its industry's costs, activity, markets and private capital against the industry's own history.
Output of semiconductors and electronic components: the index stood at 190.1 in August 2026 (Federal Reserve Board), 12.4% above a year earlier: the 60th percentile of its 12-month changes in 20 years.
SERA IQ analysis
Every week, and every month, SERA IQ publishes a read on the markets behind private capital. It is general market commentary, not investment advice, drafted with the assistance of AI and checked by automated controls. Every figure in it comes from the data on these pages, and every call in it is graded in the open.
The SERA IQ Capital Brief is a free weekly email of short readings from the record, each with where it sits: the cycle, where money moved, a signal to watch, real assets and costs, and private capital, with a spotlight on one asset class when its record allows. Get the Capital Brief
Grading of calls
Written down. Each call names a series, which way it will move and by which month, before the outcome is known.
Published. It goes out with its note, with how often its series moved that way over the last 20 years, so it can be read against chance.
Graded. Once the data for its month is out, it is graded once, against the published figure.
Kept. A wrong call stays on the record beside the right ones. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Open calls
SERA IQ expects soybeans to be lower in January 2027.
47% of months its series moved that way, over the last 20 years
SERA IQ expects construction input prices to be higher in April 2027.
71% of months its series moved that way, over the last 20 years
SERA IQ expects copper to be lower in December 2026.
43% of months its series moved that way, over the last 20 years
SERA IQ expects housing starts to be higher in March 2027.
52% of months its series moved that way, over the last 20 years
SERA IQ expects US natural gas to be higher in December 2026.
49% of months its series moved that way, over the last 20 years
No share of right calls is shown until at least 10 calls are graded; none is graded so far.
What the analysis is, and is not
- This analysis is general market commentary, published to every SERA IQ subscriber and not tailored to anyone's circumstances.
- It is not advice: not investment, legal or tax advice, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, commodity or other investment.
- It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security.
- It is drafted with the help of artificial intelligence and checked by automated controls, and its calls are graded, right or wrong, on the SERA IQ scorecard; past results do not predict future results.
- Facto Global LLC and its affiliates may hold positions in, or raise capital in, markets and securities it discusses.
Credits
Illustrative example: the firms shown are fictional. Layout and figures from SERA IQ on October 17, 2026. Sources: BIS locational banking statistics; U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury International Capital; OECD, CC BY 4.0; changes calculated by SERA IQ; U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED; U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data; U.S. Department of Labor, via FRED; NBER business cycle dates, via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED; World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0; changes calculated by SERA IQ; U.S. Census Bureau, via FRED; U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Energy Information Administration, via FRED; CFTC Commitments of Traders; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This product uses the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Data API but is not endorsed or certified by BEA.
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